Quantifying 2012 NFL Draft Performance

How can fans of an NFL team determine if their teams draft was a success or failure?  The only way to tell for sure is to wait a predetermined amount of time after the draft, a few years, and look at the performance of each pick.

What if a fan like me is just not that patient?  How can we determine if a player or an entire draft was a success just a short period after Mr. Irrelevant comes off the board?  The only way I know to measure the success or failure of a draft before a player plays an NFL snap is by a consensus of opinions and projections from reliable scouting sources.

I used three sources that I tend to like: National Football Post, CBS Sports Rankings, and Walter Football Consensus Rankings (they take their opinions plus a further consensus of other scouts like Kiper, McShay, Mayock, etc.).  I roll these three indexes into an average of when a specific prospect will be taken - this is called the "Forecast".  The "Actual" is when the player was picked.  The biggest difference (variance) between FORECAST and ACTUAL indicates major bargains (negative numbers) or major reaches (positive numbers).

A link to the Forecast/Actual/Variance of every player drafted:
2012 Draft Forecast to Actual by Player Draft Rank

This is a summary of the performance of each NFL team:



What does this mean?  The Bengals, after their two first round picks, went on a value rampage for the next five rounds.  The scary thing is if they had not traded back in their 21st pick, they would have had the opportunity to pick David Decastro, who was the biggest value pick by the Steelers in the first round (they chose the second best guard Zeitler a few picks after Pittsburgh grabbed DeCastro).

The Bengals' picks after the first round:

1. Devon Still (DT) taken 26 picks after his forecasted rank
2. Mohammed Sanu (WR) 25 picks after forecast
3. Brandon Thompson (DT) 53 picks after forecast
4. Orson Charles (TE) 52 picks after forecast
5. Shaun Prater was taken pretty close to where he was forecasted
6. Marvin Jones (WR) 77 picks after forecast
7. George Iloka (FS) 80 picks after forecast
8. Dan Herron (RB) 10 picks after forecast

That stretch of eight players was a pretty amazing performance if you value the benchmark of the three scouting sites used in determining the forecasted draft position.  Getting Marvin Jones 77 picks later than he was forecasted is equivalent to trading a fifth rounder for third round talent (without having to give up anything additional).

The Seahawks look like the picked quite a few players ahead of where they were forecasted in just about every round... especially the last three rounds.

***

Using this methodology to grade draft performance, here are a few lists of Best and Worst:

Five Biggest Draft Value Steals in the Draft (variance is the number of picks greater than their draft forecast):

1. Alfonzo Dennard had a 53 average forecast but was actually picked at 224 (a spread of 171 picks)
2. Cam Johnson - 82 forecast - 237 actual = 155 pick variance
3. Antonio Allen - 116 forecast - 242 actual = 125 pick variance
4. Brandon Washington - 87 forecast - 200 actual = 112 pick variance
5. Markelle Martin - 78 forecast - 190 actual = 112 pick variance
6. Billy Winn - 95 forecast - 205 actual = 110 pick variance (Go Browns!)

Five Biggest Reaches (variance is number of picks less than draft forecast):

1. John Hughes - 507 forecast - 87 actual = 420 variance
2. Robert Griffin - 575 forecast - 203 actual = 372 variance
3. Isaih Frey - 489 forecast - 184 actual = 305 variance
4. Travis Benjamin - 401 forecast - 100 actual = 301 variance
5. Najee Goode - 422 forecast - 140 actual = 282 variance

* If the Browns drafted Brandon Thompson, who was available, instead of John Hughes, it would have been a 477 pick swing.  Thompson was forecasted at pick 40 and would have been picked at 87.  This would have catapulted the Browns from 17th place to 4th place.

Five Biggest Draft Value Steals in the First Round

1. David DeCastro was picked 13 picks back of where he was forecasted (and the Browns had a shot).
2. Melvin Ingram - 7 picks back
3. Quinton Coples - 6 picks back
4. Riley Reiff - 4 picks back
5. Michael Brockers - 3 picks back

Five Biggest Reaches in the First Round

1. AJ Jenkins - was picked 104 picks prematurely
2. Bruce Irvin - 57 picks ahead
3. Shea McClellin - 37 picks ahead
4. Harrison Smith - 29 picks ahead
5. Kevin Zeitler - 16 picks ahead

The breakdown of how the Browns performed based on this methodology:

What does this mean?  Absolutely nothing unless you believe what most of these scouts were grading these particular prospects prior to the draft.  If I had the choice, I would want to be on the winning end of these variances like the Bengals and would want to avoid drafting like the Seahawks in the future.  There will be time to assess the real performance down the road, but until that time, it was fun to play Monday Morning GM.