Quantifying 2012 NFL Draft Performance

How can fans of an NFL team determine if their teams draft was a success or failure?  The only way to tell for sure is to wait a predetermined amount of time after the draft, a few years, and look at the performance of each pick.

What if a fan like me is just not that patient?  How can we determine if a player or an entire draft was a success just a short period after Mr. Irrelevant comes off the board?  The only way I know to measure the success or failure of a draft before a player plays an NFL snap is by a consensus of opinions and projections from reliable scouting sources.

I used three sources that I tend to like: National Football Post, CBS Sports Rankings, and Walter Football Consensus Rankings (they take their opinions plus a further consensus of other scouts like Kiper, McShay, Mayock, etc.).  I roll these three indexes into an average of when a specific prospect will be taken - this is called the "Forecast".  The "Actual" is when the player was picked.  The biggest difference (variance) between FORECAST and ACTUAL indicates major bargains (negative numbers) or major reaches (positive numbers).

A link to the Forecast/Actual/Variance of every player drafted:
2012 Draft Forecast to Actual by Player Draft Rank

This is a summary of the performance of each NFL team:



What does this mean?  The Bengals, after their two first round picks, went on a value rampage for the next five rounds.  The scary thing is if they had not traded back in their 21st pick, they would have had the opportunity to pick David Decastro, who was the biggest value pick by the Steelers in the first round (they chose the second best guard Zeitler a few picks after Pittsburgh grabbed DeCastro).

The Bengals' picks after the first round:

1. Devon Still (DT) taken 26 picks after his forecasted rank
2. Mohammed Sanu (WR) 25 picks after forecast
3. Brandon Thompson (DT) 53 picks after forecast
4. Orson Charles (TE) 52 picks after forecast
5. Shaun Prater was taken pretty close to where he was forecasted
6. Marvin Jones (WR) 77 picks after forecast
7. George Iloka (FS) 80 picks after forecast
8. Dan Herron (RB) 10 picks after forecast

That stretch of eight players was a pretty amazing performance if you value the benchmark of the three scouting sites used in determining the forecasted draft position.  Getting Marvin Jones 77 picks later than he was forecasted is equivalent to trading a fifth rounder for third round talent (without having to give up anything additional).

The Seahawks look like the picked quite a few players ahead of where they were forecasted in just about every round... especially the last three rounds.

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Using this methodology to grade draft performance, here are a few lists of Best and Worst:

Five Biggest Draft Value Steals in the Draft (variance is the number of picks greater than their draft forecast):

1. Alfonzo Dennard had a 53 average forecast but was actually picked at 224 (a spread of 171 picks)
2. Cam Johnson - 82 forecast - 237 actual = 155 pick variance
3. Antonio Allen - 116 forecast - 242 actual = 125 pick variance
4. Brandon Washington - 87 forecast - 200 actual = 112 pick variance
5. Markelle Martin - 78 forecast - 190 actual = 112 pick variance
6. Billy Winn - 95 forecast - 205 actual = 110 pick variance (Go Browns!)

Five Biggest Reaches (variance is number of picks less than draft forecast):

1. John Hughes - 507 forecast - 87 actual = 420 variance
2. Robert Griffin - 575 forecast - 203 actual = 372 variance
3. Isaih Frey - 489 forecast - 184 actual = 305 variance
4. Travis Benjamin - 401 forecast - 100 actual = 301 variance
5. Najee Goode - 422 forecast - 140 actual = 282 variance

* If the Browns drafted Brandon Thompson, who was available, instead of John Hughes, it would have been a 477 pick swing.  Thompson was forecasted at pick 40 and would have been picked at 87.  This would have catapulted the Browns from 17th place to 4th place.

Five Biggest Draft Value Steals in the First Round

1. David DeCastro was picked 13 picks back of where he was forecasted (and the Browns had a shot).
2. Melvin Ingram - 7 picks back
3. Quinton Coples - 6 picks back
4. Riley Reiff - 4 picks back
5. Michael Brockers - 3 picks back

Five Biggest Reaches in the First Round

1. AJ Jenkins - was picked 104 picks prematurely
2. Bruce Irvin - 57 picks ahead
3. Shea McClellin - 37 picks ahead
4. Harrison Smith - 29 picks ahead
5. Kevin Zeitler - 16 picks ahead

The breakdown of how the Browns performed based on this methodology:

What does this mean?  Absolutely nothing unless you believe what most of these scouts were grading these particular prospects prior to the draft.  If I had the choice, I would want to be on the winning end of these variances like the Bengals and would want to avoid drafting like the Seahawks in the future.  There will be time to assess the real performance down the road, but until that time, it was fun to play Monday Morning GM.

Cleveland Browns 2012 NFL Draft Grades

My thoughts on each Cleveland Browns draft pick in the 2012 NFL Draft:

#3: Trent Richardson (RB) Alabama

The Good: I think Richardson is the best offensive weapon the Browns could have possibly acquired with their first draft pick.  Adding him to the team will immediately give opposing defenses something to game plan and will decrease the load on every offensive starter.  Whether running inside or outside, catching passes out of the backfield, blocking, and ball security, Trent Richardson is the creme of the crop of running back prospects, not just in this draft year, but over the past decade.

The Bad:  The only thing preventing this pick from having the ultimate grade is what the Browns gave up to move down one spot for the right to pick Richardson.  The Browns parted with a 4th round, 5th round, and 7th round picks in addition to swapping their #4 for the #3 pick.  Tom Heckert was interviewed saying another offer prompted this proactive trade, but this type of information is normally never made public.  I have a hard time believing Minnesota could have executed a trade with Tampa Bay or any other team with absolute certainty they would have received the player they coveted: Matt Kalil.  Even though they had the picks to trade, I still think they gave up enough to ding this selection slightly.

Final Grade: B+ (Trent Richardson alone is worth an A but giving up the picks dings this to a B+)

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#22: Brandon Weeden (QB) Oklahoma State

This pick is a huge sour note for me.  I have two huge questions that form the foundation for my displeasure with this pick.   First, could we have picked Weeden with the #37 pick allowing the Browns to use their #22 pick on Reiley Reiff or David DeCastro?  I think the answer is, "yes" which means we probably reached or overdrafted Weeden a bit and could have potentially had a higher rated pick.

The second question about Weeden is will he be an improvement over McCoy on this team?  Granted the offense added a few nice pieces to improve over the personnel they started last year, but the current troop at wide receiver is overloaded with players that cannot separate.  The offensive line is young and gave McCoy no time in the pocket to go through his progressions.  Will Weeden be an upgrade?  I am not so convinced he will join the team and be Andy Daulton reincarnated and am leaning to the possibility that he will really struggle next year due to the same reason Colt struggled last year.  Lack of playmakers on offense ... especially wide receiver.  The opportunity cost of not selecting another playmaker and reaching on Weeden here accelerated

I was at a tavern in Westerville, OH surrounded by Browns fans that were ecstatic at picking Richardson and the entire place cleared out within five minutes of announcing Weeden.  I was with a Steelers fan that was not too gentle rubbing in the fact the Browns could have drafted David DeCastro instead of Weeden at the 22nd pick.

An alternate scenario to think about:  What if the Browns used this 22nd pick to acquire the top tackle on the board (Riley Reiff) and selected one of the top WRs like Alshon Jefferey, Stephen Hill, or Reuben Randle at #37 while keeping Colt McCoy as the starting QB?  Which scenario would improve the team more?  I think it's a no-brainer that McCoy/Reiff/Jefferey is a better option than Weeden/Schwartz.

Final Grade: D (Drafting him at 37 would have yielded a grade of C)

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#37: Mitchell Schwartz (OT) California

I liked Mitchell Schwartz but would love to hear the rationale of why he was ranked higher than Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, or Bobby Massie.  I don't mind this pick at all but would love to hear why Schwartz was graded ahead of the other tackles on the board at this pick.

Final Grade: B

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#87: John Hughes (DT) Cincinnati

Some draft ranking on John Hughes:  CBS Sports: 534th ranked prospect; Walter Football Consensus Rankings: 480th ranked prospect; National Football Post: he is not even ranked.  If we liked him this much, he would have been available after the fifth round... why waste this pick?

Is depth for DT a greater need than WR?  If the answer is yes, Brandon Thompson was picked five picks later than Hughes and was rated as a late first to second round prospect at DT.  

If we had not traded back with Denver, we could have selected either Mohamed Sanu (WR) Rutgers or Demario Davis (LB) Arkansas State instead of John Hughes.  Either of those picks would have been an upgrade over who we currently selected at each respective position.

Alternative scenarios: 

1. Don't trade with Denver and use the #67 pick on Mohamed Sanu.  Use the #100 pick on Nigel Bradham (LB).  
2. Don't trade with Denver and use the #67 pick on Demario Davis and the #100 pick on Joe Adams.  As much as I like Demario Davis, I would rather have Mohamed Sanu over Joe Adams or Travis Benjamin.

Final Grade: F

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#100: Travis Benjamin (WR) Miami

How long has it been that this team has been looking for talent at wide receiver?  Prior to last year, I remember being promised how the West Coast Offense would unlock the potential in Robiskie and Massaquoi.  After suffering through an entire season watching receivers that could not separate, most fans pined for months on how we could solve this problem.  Free agency?  We either lost out on any decent free agents or did not make the effort.  This draft was supposed to be where this team hired a #1 receiver and I am horrified by this pick.

Travis Benjamin is ranked #263 on National Football Post, #477 for CBS, and #463 at Walter Football.  I understand liking him for his speed and likeness to DeSean Jackson, but this seems like a horrible value for this pick.  Is it possible the Browns could have picked him later?  I think that is extremely likely.

The fact the Browns overdrafted Benjamin is a tiny part of why this is disappointing.  The major disappointment is that the answer to possibly the largest roster need this team has had for the past two years is... Travis Benjamin.  

Final Grade: F (understand this is a grade on the front office and not Benjamin... I would grade him a C- at this spot)

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#120: James Michael-Johnson (LB) Nevada

I would have loved to have Demario Davis (see earlier alternate scenario), but I think this is a solid pick.  Most of the scouting projections have him averaged almost exactly at this spot, so it is not an amazing value, but a solid pick.

Final Grade: B

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#160: Ryan Miller (OG) Colorado

Slight overreach on this one, but compared to Hughes, isn't severe enough to get excited about.  Miller will be good depth for Lauvao and Pinkston and might challenge one at some point in the future.

Final Grade: C+

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#204: Emmanuel Acho (LB) Texas

Emmanuel Acho is a decent prospect, but I think the Browns received great value by picking him at this spot.  His average ranking was 139, so I think the Browns really profited by taking Acho at this pick.

Final Grade: A-

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#205: Billy Winn (DE/DT) Boise State

I have an average ranking on Billy Winn at 95 (third rounder) - selecting him at 205 is the best value of any of the Browns' picks.  Even though this is not the most pressing needs, teams seem to be adopting the Giants model of thinking - you can never have enough people to rotate to the defensive line.

Final Grade: A

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#245: Trevin Wade (CB) Arizona

A pretty good value - CBS Sports had Wade ranked at 87 but a few other services were more conservative near 200.  For one of the last picks in the seventh round, not bad.

Final Grade: B

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#247: Brad Smelley (TE) Alabama

I have a hard time seeing Smelley crack the opening day roster because the Browns are loaded at tight end - unless the Browns plan to use Smelley as competition for Marecic at fullback. At this pick, not a huge difference one way or another.

Final Grade: C-

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To summarize, the Browns secured one playmaker in Trent Richardson, a starting right tackle, and at the very least, competition for McCoy at QB.  I have no idea whether James Michael-Johnson will be the starting WLB or whether Travis Benjamin is going to be a starting WR.  

This draft has a few areas to be happy with but is overall a disappointment because of the failure to address #1 wide receiver, reaching on too many picks, and failing to pull the trigger on a number of need prospects that could be had at extreme values (reference: the Cincinnati Bengals draft).  I hope to know more when this front office decides to discuss their thoughts further on this draft.  I am shaking my head as I give the Browns a final grade of C- .

Top Mock Prospects - Malik Jackson

I like Malik Jackson as an apprentice to stick behind Frostee Rucker on the right defensive end.  I see him as a backup that could eventually win the starting right defensive end job.  The majority of the plays I watch, he is double-teamed, held by a lineman, or on the other side of the line of scrimmage.  Tennessee mostly played him inside at defensive tackle but moved him around, but he is projected at end in the NFL.

Two pretty good sections of game tape against quality offensive lines...





A great looking athlete. Has some real work to do from a technique standpoint and is playing out of position at Tennessee. However, has a lot of upside as a DE both in a 43 and 34 front in the NFL and looks like a really intriguing developmental defensive lineman at this stage with a good bit up upside long term. - National Football Post



Has a big frame, long arms and room for added bulk. Athletic movement skills. Can redirect and chase. Good lateral movement to flow in pursuit. Plays hard. Solid character and team-first attitude. Durable and football-smart. Has played inside and outside. Has some upside. - Pro Football Weekly 

Top Mock Prospects - BJ Coleman

With the Cleveland Browns coming up short in the Robert Griffin III sweepstakes, how should they improve the QB position in the 2012 NFL Draft?  I am not ready to give up on Colt McCoy, but think the Browns need to hedge on the possibility that McCoy is not the franchise guy they are looking for.  I think he deserves some offensive weapons and the shot to prove he can be the future starting QB, but also think some talent should be waiting in the wings in case Colt is not the answer.

My wish list of what I am looking for in a QB is:

1. Someone who possess all the physical tools that Colt lacks: mostly height and greater arm strength.
2. I want a mid-round prospect - 3rd round or later (we need every early pick to stockpile offensive playmakers and lineman)
3. A prospect that potentially could challenge Colt for the starting position in training camp in 2013.

Brock Osweiler is interesting, but I think he is a second round pick or third at the latest.  BJ Coleman looks like the best option for me that fits everything I would look for.

If Heckert and Shurmur do not believe Thaddeus Lewis can be a second string backup, I would cut him.  If they believe Lewis can be a capable backup, I would cut Seneca Wallace.  Whichever scenario happens, BJ Coleman would be listed as the third string QB to be developed.

Why BJ Coleman?  Mostly because he fits the criteria I listed above.  He is 6'3" and 235 lbs. and can make every NFL throw you ask him to.  He needs work on his mechanics, footwork, and composure back in the pocket but if he progresses, he has the physical abilities to be a good NFL quarterback.  When he has time, he drives the ball down the field nicely - but throws off his back foot when hurried.  He is a project, but has the tools to succeed if he puts in the work to improve.

The worst case scenario is he busts and is a wasted pick that is cut after the 2013 training camp because he has not progressed as projected.  The best case scenario is he improves his footwork, absorbs the west coast offense, and build some chemistry with some of the receivers on the team and can push forward on the depth chart in 2013.  Using a fifth round pick, I don't see a lot of risk in adding BJ.

Numerous NFL scouts and quarterback coaches, as well as a few hundred onlookers, watched former University of Tennessee at Chattanooga quarterback B.J. Coleman perform Monday during the Mocs' pro day. Coleman was unable to throw at the NFL combine in February because of a broken pinkie, but he was sharp on a warm, sunny morning at Finley Stadium. Throwing to former UTC and McCallie teammate Joel Bradford and former Red Bank and Tennessee Tech receiver Tim Benford, among others, Coleman completed his first 15 passes and finished 34-of-43, including two drops. "I felt very polished, very solid," Coleman said. "It feels like a burden has been lifted off, and it feels good to have thrown. Now I'll look forward to the next step." That next step should be some individual workouts for teams. Coleman's agent, Bus Cook, said nothing has been scheduled. The NFL draft is April 26-28. Among the 18 scouts and coaches present were representatives from the Broncos, Titans, Falcons, Giants, Patriots, Steelers and Saints. The Steelers, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Dolphins and Vikings all had quarterback coaches present. - John Frierson, The Chattanooga Times Free Press

Top Mock Prospects - Demario Davis

The Cleveland Browns need some help at weakside linebacker.  Will Scott Fujita be suspended for his role in the bounty scandal when he played on the New Orleans Saints?  It truly does not matter because I think he was in decline enough last year to warrant making it a priority to draft a future OLB.

I think the talent at 4-3 outside linebacker in this year's draft is not the deepest.  I like Lavonte David, but he is relatively small for his size (though he plays bigger) and might cost a second or third round pick.  As an alternative to David, I have read and watched a lot on Demario Davis of Arkansas State.

Davis is 6' 2" tall and 235 lbs. and ran 4.46 at his pro day.  He is incredibly athletic and always seems to be making plays on the ball - especially on running plays.  I think either he or David would fit our scheme, but I am leaning toward Demario Davis because of his size, future potential, and the value of picking him in the fourth round.

Davis looked like the complete package, testing well and appearing very athletic during position drills. He timed 4.58 in the 40, touched 38.5 inches in the vertical jump, 10-feet, four-inches in the broad jump and completed 32 reps on the bench. Later in the workout Davis showed good speed and quickness moving in every direction as well as solid ball skills in coverage drills. He's a bit of an unknown outside the scouting world, but don't be surprised if Davis pops into the late part of Round 3." - Tony Pauline, Sports Illustrated


One of the biggest surprises on tape this draft season. Was explosive, instinctive and always making plays on the football. Looks like a starting caliber linebacker either inside or out in a 43 scheme." - Wes Bunting, National Football Post

My Final Cleveland Browns Mock Draft for the 2012 NFL Draft

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Drafting Playmakers - Running Backs

Is Trent Richardson worth using the Cleveland Browns 4th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?  I thought I had a pretty good answer to why I would not want to draft a running back in the first half of the first round but never really had enough information to prove why.

Richardson blows up Browns Running Backs Coach Gary Brown during drills.

So that is the purpose of this post, to identify success and failure when teams draft a running back in different rounds and see if trends exist to prove out the best strategy for drafting running backs.

It isn't difficult to pull together a list of all the running backs drafted but how do you unequivocally identify success and failure determining if these prospect performed to the level of their draft pick?  I came up with three criteria for success: Pro Bowl selections, one thousand yard seasons, and what I consider the minimum acceptable standard - producing enough to be in the Top 40 running backs in rushing yards.  I am defining a season a failure if the running back does not produce enough yards to be ranked 40th place in rushing yards or better.  That line over the past ten years is anywhere from 473 to 612 yards - which I think is a fair line to draw. 

Top 40 RB in Rushing Yards since 2002

A summary of how each rounds yields successes and failures based on the above definitions with running back prospects:

I was pretty amazed that almost 70% of the running backs drafted in the last ten years never had a single season producing enough yards to make the Top 40 in rushing yards.  Knowing that and that 89% of first round backs had at least one Top 40 season and over 60% have made the Top 40 three times in their career - that is pretty powerful evidence to make me re-evaluate what I once thought.

The argument that all the playoff teams had success without first round running backs (true) and that the top six backs in rushing yards in 2011 were not first round picks (true) were compelling arguments to back up the notion that first round is not necessarily the round to draft a running back.  But these backs are the exception to the rule and might be in systems that allow average talent to flourish.

Looking deeper at the 3 Backs listed in the Bust Ratio (not one season in the Top 40 rushing yards in their career) that were drafted in the first round , the lineup is:  Mark Ingram (2011 @ 28th pick) and CJ Spiller (2010 @ 9th pick) are both active backs that have plenty of time to be productive and thus cannot be considered busts yet.  Chris Perry is the biggest RB bust in the past 10 years (2004 @ 26th) - not one season in the Top 40, although in 2005, had 51 receptions.  

There are a few first round picks that made the Top 40 at least once, but were extremely underwhelming.  William Green (2002 @ 16) and TJ Duckett (2002 @18) barely moved the needle. 

To try to put backs in a ranking order, I put values on each criteria.  The values I have chosen for the "Bobcat RB Score":

1. Pro Bowl Starter is worth 10 points
2. Pro Bowl Backup is worth 5 points
3. A 1,000 yard rushing season = 10 points
4. A Top 40 rushing season = 5 points
5. Average of Top 40 rushing yards per year = Avg Yards divided by 100
6. Failing to make the Top 40 = -2 points

This seems complicated, but it allows us to get to a ranking based solely on rushing performance (receiving is not being considered in this).  In the last ten years of drafting running back, the Bobcat RB score:

*Note: In the columns headers labeled 2002 through 2011, the number of yards can be found if that back rushed for enough to make the Top 40.  Any zero means the corresponding back did not make the top 40.  Blanks refer to years prior to when the back entered the NFL.

Steven Jackson(so far), based on the criteria above, has the best production 8 out of 8 seasons in a row making the Top 40 and 7 seasons with at least 1000 yards.  Frank Gore is second in this scoring as a third rounder, but only 3 out of 24 of the third round running backs have made the Top 40 at least 3 times in their career, so he, Brian Westbrook, and Jamaal Charles are the exceptions.  Adrian Peterson could eclipse everyone on this list with more time if he stays healthy and productive.

The argument that a team can find a running back in a later round than the first is possible, just not even close to as probable.  I think a stigma exists against taking running backs in the first round that really makes teams think critically before pulling the trigger on drafting first round backs.  The results are a much better chance of success with these backs - as the information in the last ten years suggests.  The only other part to consider is giving up the value of that first pick vs. using it at other positions to get the type of consistent performance that first round running backs have yielded over the past ten years.  I will save this for another post.